Note: This is an in-world analysis of the events of the sequel trilogy.
Introduction
At the beginning of The Rise of Skywalker, Palpatine is confronted by Kylo Ren. Palpatine shows Kylo the might of the Sith fleet and says it could all be his, a new Empire, if he kills Rey, ends the Jedi, and becomes what his grandfather, Vader, could not. However, when Rey arrives on Exegol, Palpatine tells her that he never wanted her dead, but wanted her on Exegol with him. This seemingly change of plan often begs the question, “Why did Palpatine order Kylo Ren to kill Rey if he never wanted her dead?”
~ At his core, Palpatine is deceitful. He never intended to hand over the power of “a new Empire” to Kylo Ren ~
Here, I show that Palpatine, indeed, never wanted Rey dead, and was deceiving Kylo Ren by manipulating his weaknesses in order for Kylo to antagonize Rey and lure her to Palpatine in anger.
Palpatine and Kylo Ren
“Lies, deceit, creating mistrust are his ways now.” - Yoda, Attack of the Clones
This quote by Yoda in Attack of the Clones was about Count Dooku, but it similarly encapsulates the principles of the Sith well, particularly those of Palpatine.
On the surface, Palpatine’s offer to Kylo Ren of a new Empire in The Rise of Skywalker seems reasonable. Palpatine and the Sith Eternal have been manipulating Kylo for most of his life in order for him to be worthy of becoming a Sith. Therefore, Palpatine offering this new Sith Empire to Kylo seems like a natural next-step.
~ Palpatine wanted to keep Kylo Ren tormented as his servant ~
However, Palpatine has never shown or given any reason to simply hand over his power (and Empire) to anyone, including Kylo Ren. Just like Darth Vader, and the apprentices before him, Palpatine’s ultimate goal with Kylo was to keep him in tormented servitude, forever drowned in the Dark side.
A common line of reasoning for Palpatine’s overarching plan in The Rise of Skywalker is that Palpatine’s cloned body was not viable in the longterm, so Kylo Ren was chosen to house Palpatine’s consciousness. Palpatine was unable to secure his granddaughter Rey for this purpose when she was a child (he unsuccessfully sent Ochi of Bestoon to retrieve her), so Palpatine shifted his goal to use Kylo as a vessel instead. So when Rey reappears as an adult after her awakening with the Force, Palpatine simply sent Kylo Ren to eliminate her because Palpatine no longer needed her, and she constituted a threat to him.
~ If Palpatine needed or wanted Kylo Ren to strike him down in anger, Palpatine would have let Kylo do it when he first confronts him on Exegol ~
However, if Palpatine intended, or had the ability, to use Kylo’s body to house his consciousness, Palpatine could have easily let Kylo strike him down in anger (what is needed for that particular Sith ritual) when Kylo first arrived on Exegol. Kylo was more than ready to strike Palpatine down at that moment. Yet, Palpatine did not do this, which indicates he never wanted or could not use Kylo’s body. Instead, Palpatine uses Kylo’s weaknesses and insecurities against him in order for Kylo to lure Rey to him in anger.
Palpatine knew Kylo Ren would not kill Rey
An unforeseen circumstance that Palpatine did not count on was Kylo’s inability to kill Rey. In The Last Jedi, Kylo successfully demonstrates his worth as a Sith by killing his master, Snoke. However, Kylo was not able to kill Rey when told to do so by Snoke. To Snoke, Rey was just a powerful Jedi to eliminate (more on this below).
It wasn’t until after the events of The Last Jedi that Palpatine recognized that Rey was his lost grandchild that he needed, and leveraged Kylo’s inability to kill her by telling him to do just that - “Kill the girl”.
~ After the events of Snoke’s throne room in The Last Jedi, Palpatine realized Rey was a weakness for Kylo Ren. He could not kill her then, so Palpatine used that weakness against him ~
Consequently, when Palpatine tells Kylo who Rey really is (his grandchild) in The Rise of Skywalker (which Palpatine knows Kylo will tell Rey), he uses this information as well as Kylo’s inability to kill Rey and Kylo’s own insecurities about not being able to live up to Darth Vader’s potential, to manipulate him in order to (1) antagonize Rey and push her to the Dark, which would draw her to Palpatine in anger, and (2) to keep Kylo and Rey pitted against each other. Palpatine also knew that Kylo’s weakness for Rey could also be a threat if Kylo and Rey were to join together, similar to how Luke and Anakin joined together to turn the tables on Palpatine in Return of the Jedi. That is why Palpatine did not simply tell Kylo to bring her to him.
Snoke did not know Rey was a Palpatine
It is often interpreted that Snoke was Palpatine’s literal surrogate, and that Palpatine knew and directed all of Snoke’s actions. This is likely an over-interpretation of Snoke’s function, and Palpatine’s influence on him, likely misconstrued by Palpatine’s words in the beginning of The Rise of Skywalker.
~ Snoke was an artificially made life form, genetically manipulated with the purpose of corrupting Kylo Ren. Yet, he was largely autonomous ~
When Kylo first confronts Palpatine, Palpatine tells Kylo “I made Snoke”. Palpatine did not say “I was Snoke”. There is a difference, and by saying he made Snoke, Palpatine simply revealed to Kylo that he was behind Snoke’s creation and his general purpose, which was to manipulate and corrupt Ben Solo.
In addition, when Palpatine says "I have been every voice you have ever heard inside your head”, this implies that Palpatine influenced Kylo’s visions, not that Palpatine was literally Snoke and behind every word Snoke said to Kylo. Wookieepedia says “Snoke possessed an independent mind, he was obliviously influenced by his creator from afar”.
~ Snoke was not an avatar for Palpatine. He was let loose for the designed purpose of testing Kylo Ren, but was able to make decisions independently ~
Consequently, Palpatine did not directly manipulate Snoke’s every action, nor know of every decision Snoke made in real time. Therefore, the events of The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi that concern Rey and Snoke unfold as they are shown on-screen. For example, in The Force Awakens, Rey is a curiosity to Snoke. He does not know who she is, and he wants Kylo Ren to bring her to him.
~ When Snoke learns about Rey in The Force Awakens, he is genuinely intrigued by her. Even through the events of The Last Jedi, Snoke never learned of Rey’s true lineage ~
And in The Last Jedi, Snoke similarly does not put the pieces together. He admits that he was incorrect when he (wrongly) concluded that the rise in the Light to meet the Dark in Kylo Ren was Luke Skywalker. But, he was also wrong about Rey. He does not uncover that Rey is part of Palpatine’s bloodline, and does not correctly identify Kylo and Rey’s connection in the Force as a dyad.
The Visual Dictionary for The Rise of Skywalker says that “Snoke knew that Rey and Kylo were linked through the Force, a prophesized “dyad” connecting two individuals across space and time”. Therefore, Snoke only knew that Kylo and Rey were “linked through the Force”. He simply takes credit for a connection they had naturally through the Force (later identified to be a prophesized dyad by Palpatine), and uses it for his (engineered) purpose, to test Kylo Ren. That is why Snoke tells Kylo to kill Rey. It is simply part of Snoke’s manufactured objective.
So, Palpatine did not know Rey was his lost grandchild until after the events of The Last Jedi, just like Darth Vader (and Palpatine) did not know Luke or Leia were the lost twins of Anakin Skywalker until after the events of A New Hope in the Original Trilogy. Considering that the events of The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi occur over a short period of time, this is quite reasonable.
“The Princess of Alderaan has disrupted my plan”
After Ben Solo is redeemed, Palaptine gives his most revealing details about his plan to General Pryde.
First, Palpatine tells Pryde that the princess of Alderaan has altered his plan. This statement is often interpreted that Leia’s final connection with Ben Solo through the Force was to prevent Kylo Ren from killing Rey, and, therefore, Palpatine was forced to alter his plan (Kylo killing Rey). However, this was only coincidental, as we don’t know what Kylo Ren was going to do to Rey once he had her defeated in their duel on the Death Star II. And, Leia only knew that this was simply her last chance to connect with her son before he becomes unreachable, forever lost to the Dark.
~ It is unlikely that Kylo Ren was going to kill Rey. He was not able to kill her in Snoke’s throne room, and showed no true desire to kill her throughout the events of The Rise of Skywalker ~
It is not likely that Kylo was going to kill Rey in that moment. He was not able to kill her during the events of the The Last Jedi, and similarly has no strong desire to kill Rey in The Rise of Skywalker. For example, prior to their duel on the Death Star II, Kylo does not draw his lightsaber until well into the fight.
Throughout the The Rise of Skywalker, Kylo tells Rey that he is going to turn her to the Dark side, that it “is in our nature” and she is only getting to Exegol with him. In other words, Kylo knows of the power of their bond as a dyad in the Force, and he needs Rey to defeat Palpatine.
Therefore, when Palpatine says “The Princess of Alderaan has disrupted my plan”, he did not mean his plan for Kylo to kill Rey (which was only a deception), but that Palpatine did not count on Ben Solo being redeemed, and Leia being the catalyst. Kylo Ren turning to the Light was the “disruption” to Palpatine’s plan.
~ During Palpatine’s conversation with General Pryde, he reveals his true intentions - “She will come”. If Palpatine really wanted Rey dead, he would have told General Pryde to kill her after Ben Solo was redeemed ~
Second, Palpatine tells Pryde to “Send a ship to a world they know. Let it burn”, and that “She will come. Her friends will follow”. This statement is the key to unraveling Palpatine’s plan. If Palpatine’s plan was to kill Rey, he would have simply told General Pryde to kill Rey, to destroy the planet Rey was on. However, he did not do this. Instead, he instructs General Pryde to destroy a planet they know. Palpatine knows this will further antagonize Rey (and the Resistance), and provoke her to come to Exegol in anger, which is what he really wants.
In addition, Palpatine’s plan to bring Rey to Exegol is also narratively reenforced when Finn finds Ochi’s old order from Palpatine in the droid D-O. Finn tells Poe “He [the Emperor] wanted her alive”. This lets the audience know of Palpatine’s true intensions, and foreshadows the “turn of events” that is coming when Rey goes to Exegol.
Conclusion
Palpatine is truly is a master of deception. He has been manipulating the Force, and the Galaxy as a whole, for generations. And, his intentions with Snoke and the Sith Eternal in the final chapter of the Skywalker Saga were no different.
Snoke, indeed, trained Kylo Ren well for his purpose as a Sith - to serve Palpatine. Palpatine was deceiving Kylo Ren when he told him that he would hand him “a new Empire” if he killed Rey.
And in similar fashion, Palpatine uses Kylo Ren’s own weaknesses - (1) his inability to kill Rey in The Last Jedi, and (2) his tormented desire to live up to Vader’s name - against Kylo, in order to get him to do what Palpatine really wants, to lure Rey to him on Exegol in anger so that Palpatine can continue his immortal quest for power.